Would the Magic Really Happen?

By:     Dr. G. Rauf Roashan 

Abstract:  Almost all Afghans expect a miraculous outcome to the forthcoming Loya Jirga in favor of peace and security in their land.  A consideration of their wishes would show that their expectations from the Loya Jirga is a long order that the Jirga may not be able to deal with because of its limitation of time and definition of its expected agenda that includes deciding on a transitional government.  All of this in only six days is equivalent to expecting of a true miracle.  It is now the responsibility of the Loya Jirga preparation machinery to ensure just and equitable representation to the Loya Jirga and guarantee that all tricks are banned to be played in this last game in Afghan politics.  It is also upon the participants of the Jirga whoever they may be to ensure just and democratic conduct of the Jirga in a way that would bring about a solution to the long suffering of the Afghan nation and to be a matter of pride for Afghans of tomorrow.

It would seem that the whole Afghan nation is poised watching for the Magic to be played at the upcoming Loya Jirga in June.  Many expect the magic to lead to a finale in the long-suffering story of the Afghan nation.  Yet different individuals and movements look upon that finale differently.  Some look at it as an end to the suffering of decades and even centuries in the life of the nation.  Others look at it as an opening to a path that would lead the country towards democracy, the rule of law and the rule of the people.  Yet some see in it their loss of power and grip over the military and civil life in Afghanistan.  Very few are those who objectively look upon the process as a mechanism used by the Afghans throughout history to bring about a national solution to national problems. Others question its organization, its organizing committee’s competence, its procedures, its agenda etc.  This is because it is so easy, in matters related to Afghanistan, to find faults in them.  It is difficult to suggest solutions.

Le us look at a few facts about the Loya Jirga.  The idea of this Loya Jirga emanated from the camp of the former King of Afghanistan who lived in exile in Rome and whose camp wanted to do something for Afghanistan.  The idea caught up international significance when it was also embraced by the United Nations and the United States.  A United Nations sponsored conference of the Afghan factions stamped the idea as “the” solution to the Afghan issue. The meeting suggested that the emergency Loya Jirga should, in line with the past tradition, be opened by a Kingly personality namely the former King of Afghanistan.  It also decided that the Jirga should discuss and decide upon a transitional government for a period of two years.  The transitional government, during its administration and not at this time, was, as per the Bonn agreement, to work for convening of general elections for a permanent government and other related vital issues such as the form of government of Afghanistan etc.

But the Afghan nation that has suffered greatly seems to be in a hurry and would like this Loya Jirga to come up not only with a decision regarding the transitional government, but final decisions regarding the permanent fate of the country including a determination of its leader, its form of government, its national army, its permanent government and a blueprint of its plan for reconstruction and development.  This apparently is a tall order and the Loya Jirga, in the six days that has been allotted to it cannot deal with all of these wishes and aspirations of the Afghans.

In the meantime, there are warlords who see in the outcome of the Loya Jirga losing their ground to new forces of democracy in the country.  They are afraid of losing political, military and social ground to the new democratic forces that would demand that the nation be ruled by law rather than by guns.  Some have been in the military scene of the Afghan conflict for as long as a quarter of a century.  It now is hard for them to realize that their hopes for regional and national power could and would be challenged. 

There are others who fear that the Loya Jirga preparation committee established by the United Nations has had grave shortcomings in its deliberation, compiling of rules, deciding on the duration and procedures of the Loya Jirga and the selection and election of its members.  Some accuse the procedures of grave imbalances in the number of elected and selected members of the Jirga.  Others accuse it of inefficiency in allocating of numbers on a geographical or geopolitical basis and yet others are concerned over inequality in assigning of representatives according to ethnic backgrounds.  Some of these accusations are rather serious in that even a group of elders from the east and south of the country have documented their grievances and have asked for a delay to the convening of the Loya Jirga, until such a time that their concerns are taken care of.

In all of this the person of the former King also awaits for the miracle of Loya Jirga to bring peace and tranquility to his country.  The elderly 87 year old former King consistently expresses the fact that he is there to help bring peace to Afghanistan and to serve the cause of his nation.  Yet there are people and even foreign journalists that speculate over the fact that the King is hopeful also that the Jirga would revive the system of constitutional monarchy in Afghanistan.  In their speculation the only reference they make is to the statements of the King and his camp that if the Jirga wanted a return to Monarchy then, he and his family would have to oblige.  This is not much unlike the response that Burhanuddin Rabbani gives to reporters about his acceptance of presidency of Afghanistan if Loya Jirga should decide on it.  The head of the Interim Authority, Hamid Karzai has had a similar statement by saying he is not seeking appointment as the head of the government in the upcoming transitional administration, but he would accept and be honored if that was the wish of the Jirga.

But whether a revival of the monarchy, or appointment of Mr. Rabbani as president or that of Mr. Karzai as the prime minister would be the solution to the long-standing ills of the country (such as a quarter of a century of war and devastation and their consequences, tens of natural catastrophes including earthquakes, floods, locusts, epidemic diseases, and above all long years of drought) is another question.  Dealing with the political aspects of the Loya Jirga is another important issue.  All of these make the Loya Jirga one of the most important venues for finding of solutions to the problems of the country.  And these solutions are no less than miracles that are expected to happen because of the Jirga.

Now it is upon the players of the Jirga to play their cards right and produce, if not the miracle, something near to it, that would be acceptable to Afghans today and to be a matter of pride for Afghans of tomorrow.  It is for the players to bring their cards in a way that is just, that is based on true democracy and is free of tricks. Tricks that could be played by any number of people inside and outside the country to disturb this last hope of the Afghans for peace in their country.  It is also for the Jirga preparation machinery to make sure that representatives are elected and selected on the basis of justice, equality and fair political procedures so that universal representation of the aspiration of the nation is ensured.  It is upon this machinery also to make sure that elections are not bought or sold, especially now that billions of Afghan paper money, similar to play money has been put in circulation.


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