Suddenly Afghanistan! Again
Geopolitics of a Rediscovered Land

Dr. G. Rauf Roashan

Geo, the Land
Politics
Afghanistan and South Asia
Afghanistan and Central Asia
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Afghanistan
Efforts for Accession to the WTO
Afghanistan and Europe
Afghanistan and the United States
Conclusions

Abstract: There has recently been an outburst of activity regarding Afghanistan’s relations with the countries of the region and the world and its interest and membership in regional and international groupings. Afghanistan has gained, once again, new recognition as an important country in the heart of Asia and has either found his way in these regional and international groupings or is poised to join them. Her strategic geopolitical situation and recent world events have given her the renewed importance. This paper tries to shed some light on some aspects of these activities that involve groupings and organizations in South Asia, Central Asia, the world at large, Europe and the United States.

Geo; The Land:

In a more natural setting, bound by the Oxus or the River Amu on the north and delineated by the old Indus or Sind on the east and south, the land of the Afghans has played a great role as a land bridge between and among civilizations. If you were asked to put this country geographically today you would have a hard time deciding. Is it in Central Asia? South Asia? or the Middle East? The mighty Hindukush that runs from northeast to the southwest provides geographical divisions in the form of deep gorges, wide valleys, steppes and plains as well as deserts. Within this geographical entity the Afghans have lived for thousands of years fiercely attached to the land, the mountains and valleys and fast flowing mountain streams and rivers and have given great sacrifices in defending the rugged land. History stands witness to the Afghan resistance to occupation by great conquerors. Alexander the Great spent three precious years of his short life to pass over the land of the Afghans. Gengez Khan lost his beloved grandson to the Afghan defenders of Bamiyan in central Afghan highlands. More recently in the 19th and 20th centuries colonial powers tasted their first ever defeats in the land of the Afghans. The British and the Soviet occupiers had to pay in precious blood for their invasion of the country and were happy to seek a way out. The geography is friendly only to the natives who fearlessly traverse its expanse of some 250.000 square miles of mountainous terrain and deserts under extreme climatic conditions. The snow bound passes of the Hindukush, the hamlets hidden in the folds of the mighty mountain and the villages dotting the steppes and valleys, house the Afghans who are accustomed not only to the sub-zero temperatures of winter but who have and can brave scorching heat exceeding 120 degrees Fahrenheit in the southwest deserts.

Politics:

Afghanistan has also played a role as conduit of knowledge, information, and civilization between the Mediterranean region and the Far East. The Silk Route stands witness to this fact. As caravans of merchandise traversed the land from west to east and vice versa, they also spread knowledge and information about other cultures. In the land of the Afghans, great scholars and scientists rose to fame and contributed to the collective knowledge of mankind everywhere. Spices from the subcontinent and silk from China were sent to Europe through the land of the Afghans. Socrates became famous in China and Confucius in Greece, not through satellite transmission, but by travelers who passed through the land of the Afghans.

The East and especially India became a great economic target for the colonial powers of Europe in the 18th and 19th centuries. Afghanistan was located at the gate of the sub-continent. The Russian empire rivalry with the British, the source of the Great Game, was played over Afghanistan, as she was essential in getting to the riches of India.

And then came the 21st century. The politics of the new century became more complicated and economic interests of the world powers took a variety of forms and shapes. The east-west relationship too, became more complicated. Events in the remotest corners of the world could affect the affairs of many nations thousands of miles apart. Energy in the form of fossil fuel and not gold became the most sought after commodity. The so-called third world countries in Asia, Africa and America that had exportable reserves of the black gold gained importance. As economy could not be dissected from social conduct, the advanced West took a keen interest in the social behavior of the third world countries as well. At times values of civilizations clashed with each other.

But the most important manifestation of the changes in the beginning of this century could be seen in the economic interests of nations. Political changes that occurred after the downfall of the communist system in Russia resulted in the independence of the former Central Asian Republics of the Soviet era. Some of these nations possess vast resources that need to be exploited through exportation. Central Asian nations are geographically located far from ocean outlets. In the north there is the vast Siberian plain that leads to nowhere. The vast Russian territory too, is far from the warm waters. In the east they are bound by China, a wide geographical area with strict centrally controlled economy that is led by communist principles. A more natural outlet therefore could be found in the south, through Afghanistan. Thus Afghanistan from an economic point of view became a target of interest again.

Afghanistan and South Asia:

Historically, culturally and economically Afghanistan and South Asia have gone together. Just prior to 1969, Afghanistan belonged to the South East Asian Region of the World Health Organization while Pakistan did not. Today the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation that was set up in 1985 with the inclusion of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka has expanded by one more member, namely Afghanistan. The decision was reached at the organization’s 13th summit meeting in Dhaka, Bangladesh. This is a political move of economic and social consequences not only for Afghanistan as a new member, but also for the region and especially for India, the main pusher of the move for the inclusion of Afghanistan and Pakistan, India’s rival. The move strengthens the notion that Afghanistan now, after years of turmoil is a nation well on the launching stand for economic and social development and that she has regained its historic importance of strategic consequences among the nations of South Asia. She can be trusted to serve as a new bridge between energy thirsty South Asia and energy rich free Central Asian nations. Such a link would be of great geopolitical and economic significance. One of the most important economic outcomes of Afghanistan’s inclusion in SAARC might be the possibility of her benefiting from SAFTA, South Asian Free Trade and a land route through Pakistan to India. The political and especially economic implication of the route cannot be overemphasized.

Afghanistan and Central Asia:

The Economic Cooperation Organization is a unique grouping in which ten Muslim countries mostly in central Asia are joined to build up trade in the region. The group consists of Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The geographic extension of the grouping into Iran and Turkey brings the region closer to the Middle East and Europe. The Afghan Minister of Commerce in a speech to the recent ECO Conference in Kabul summed up the objective of the organization by saying: “ It is only through regional cooperation and greater economic integration that we will be able to use the enormous resources that we have in the region for the betterment of the lives of our people.”

However, both the political and economic implications of the organization for Afghanistan are enormous. Afghanistan is in the middle of it all. In the face of the threat from extremist movements, activities and even unrest, the need for adoption of a unified strategy plus economic development coordination and cooperation become essential and ECO can play a big role in it, provided it is led by well defined objectives in all of the above.

Setting limits or exclusions from tariffs would provide economic incentives for expanding trade in this very vital part of the world that boasts a population of more than 6% of mankind.

Politically, Afghanistan, again in the middle, needs greater cooperation from all of the member states in the region and beyond and needs to have friendly relations with all to ensure smoother passage into future economic development under friendlier political conditions.

Furthermore, the region lies at the gates to the world’s largest countries and evolving economies of China and India and Afghanistan is right there at the door.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Afghanistan:

Perhaps one of the organizations with which Afghanistan would have to deal is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that in addition to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan includes two giant Asian forces of China and Russia. Afghanistan presently a close US ally lives in the proximity of the Shanghai group and has been involved in some of its meetings and will be affected by its policies and objectives. Balancing relations with the group would require great diplomatic skill and foresight mainly because both Russia and China have great economic and political interests in Central Asia and would not hesitate to challenge US excursions in the region.

Afghanistan and its Effort for Accession to the World Trade Organization:

Afghanistan is economically bound to take a leap, as soon as security situations improve, in the country and means of production are activated. She is rich with natural resources and has abundant, if untrained manpower resources for economic activity in both agriculture and industry. Billions of dollars spent in Afghanistan in military and developmental fields have an effect in boosting economic growth of sorts. The growth may or may not be equitable but the wealth will be generated for Afghanistan. Investment in a variety of businesses, industry and companies on the back ground of huge international economic incentives would lead Afghanistan to take up serious commercial challenges in the international arena. For most of the above she needs to join the World Trade Organization to support its leap into future economic endeavor. But membership in WTO is not solely a political decision. The WTO Secretariat has already supported the notion of Afghanistan’s membership. Afghanistan this month started to work on the process of accession to the WTO. For this she has to meet many requirements. For some states fulfilling these would need many years. Afghanistan however, hopes to complete the process in two years.

For Afghanistan that is already having a difficult ascension from the hole of political turmoil of its recent past, the new accession activity would definitely be a challenge. Yet the prospects of winning membership raise the hope that Afghanistan is increasingly becoming a viable political and economic entity among the community of nations.

Asia Pulse on November 18, 2005 quoted a statement from the Commerce Minister of Afghanistan that said: "Today marks a milestone in Afghanistan’s integration into the world economy and the multilateral trading system. This process of accession to the WTO is consistent with, and reinforces, the national agenda with regard to the ongoing economic and trade policy reform in the country." It added: "Afghanistan will benefit from WTO membership through enhanced exports of goods and services to the world market. Accession will also benefit Afghan consumers through greater domestic markets and more competitively priced imports."

Afghanistan and Europe:

Another development of great consequence is the issue of Afghanistan’s partnership with the European Union. Europe has traditionally been interested in Afghanistan before during and now after the classical colonial era. Recent economic and political developments in the world arena make Afghanistan of immense interest to the European community of nations. The issue of drugs, extremism and regional political considerations together with European support of the United States in its war against terror and her preemptive action against security threats, give Afghanistan more strategic importance. All of these have resulted in political and economic support for Afghanistan by European powers. The recovery road map for Afghanistan was drawn at a meeting in Bonn, Germany, where the United Nations and the United States together with the host country helped Afghans pen a strategy to deliver Afghanistan from chaos.

On November 16, 2005 Afghanistan and European Union entered into a new agreement of partnership by signing an accord at the European Parliament in Strasbourg.

President Karzai of Afghanistan said after the signing ceremony: "The signing today of [the] declaration with Europe is another step in affirming the help and assistance that the European Union is giving to Afghanistan and the importance it attaches to bringing further stability, peace and institution-building to our country,” Karzai said.
The EU has said it will continue to provide significant funds to Afghanistan to improve political and economic governance, the human rights situation, security and advance the fight against drugs.

The EU External Relations Commissioner, Ferrero-Waldner said the EU would reveal the size of its future contribution at an upcoming donors' conference in London.
She said the EU has in the last few years given Afghanistan roughly 4,000 million euro, of which 1,000 million euro has come from the joint EU community budget.

Afghanistan and the United States:

Perhaps Afghanistan’s relations with the United States are the most important in its recent history. They are important because the US has great and grave interests in Afghanistan, has more than 20,000 troops in that country, and has political and strategic stakes there. So far, the United States has enjoyed a free hand in its military operations in Afghanistan, has rendered economic, technical and especially military aid to the country and has overtly and covertly guided the country’s political standing. Afghanistan on the other hand, needs the United States support. She benefited from this support during one of its most difficult periods of recent history and during the time that she held presidential and parliamentary elections in the course of her democratization. Some of the objectives of the two countries in areas of counter-terrorism and promotion of security are the same, but there have been differences in the means of achieving the above. The Afghan President has alluded to some of these differences rather cautiously from time to time. Yet these relations are sensitive, politically delicate and have a wide range local repercussion. The Afghan leader is put in a difficult position in that on the one hand he has to play his cards to appease the United States while on the other he has to prove to his nation that he is his own man and a true national leader. So far the balancing effort has proven difficult and much convincing work needs to be carried out by the Afghan leader. Whether he will be helped in this effort by the new parliament is to be seen.

Conclusions:

In view of the burst out of activities related to Afghanistan’s regional and international relations and standing, it is obvious that the new challenges need to be met prudently and promptly. These also show Afghanistan’s increasing readiness to join the community of nations in the region and beyond and to reclaim its place as a worthy and sovereign state. Such reclamation needs resolve, planning, loyal support of the nation and cooperation among the three powers in the state. Afghanistan’s neighbors too, need to lend a helping hand to her in her day of need and abstain from profiteering and furthering of their selfish interests.

Afghanistan is, as it was, an important country in the heart of Asia. She is of strategic interest to the countries of the region and of the world. Her stability and prosperity would benefit not only itself as a country, but the region and the world. Afghanistan’s success would mean world success against drugs and terrorism. Afghanistan’s success would mean the success of peace over war, of friendship against hostility. That is why the region and the world have taken a keen interest to help her.

Overall, there is a need for a national strategy to be launched by the government of Afghanistan to deal with the new opportunities and challenges and most of this responsibility at this time and until the Afghan parliament becomes fully functional will have to be borne by Afghanistan’s elected president. 11/25/2005

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