Half Elections
October is Just Before November
Dr. G. Rauf Roashan
General elections both presidential and parliamentary were scheduled
for June 2004. For security and logistic reasons, the transitional
government, the United Nations and the elections commission decided
to carry out the elections separately: presidential elections were
delayed until October 9, 2004 and parliamentary elections were pushed
farther out into the next year.
Now that October 9, 2004, is approaching, it seems the country
is getting ready for the historic occasion. To date, the United Nations
has announced that some 8.1 million people out of an estimated eligible
voting population of 9.1 have been registered. Of this an unprecedented
41 percent have been women. The figures alone depict a wonderful progress
on the way to democratic process in a country that was deeply in trouble
with itself and the world at large.
Only a little less than three years ago, thinking about democratic
elections, registration of women voters mostly by women and giving
the nation a chance to take part in the determination of its own destiny
seemed like a pipe dream. Now the miracle has happened and both the
United Nations and the Afghans working together have shown to the
world that anything, even democracy, can be made possible by the resilient
Afghans and their determination to rise up from the ashes of a long
and imposed war.
But politics are at play and democracy is to rise above many schemes
by the politicians and the powerful. Democracy is to outrun the selfish,
party, ethnic, geographical, linguistic, and religious interests of
the local, regional and international politicians. Democracy needs
to remain in the domain of the common man's needs, aspirations and
dreams.
Afghan observers who look at the developments in Afghanistan as
they unfold see in them a social lab where many hypotheses are being
tested and their results are expected to enrich knowledge about society,
group dynamics and political process. Afghanistan will see for the
first time, general presidential elections conducted at par with international
norms. Yet Afghan society is different in many ways from majority
of the nations who practice democracy. The extreme right, the extreme
left and the middle with inclinations to either or both sides are
operative in the Afghan political sphere. Everyone wants the whole
pie; slices are not an option, but apparently acceptable.
And this whole machinery is at work for some seventeen men and
a woman who want to be the first elected president of the country.
With the other important part of the elections, namely the parliamentary
one set aside, the race has begun. Cards have been dealt and the players
are ready to stake their calls.
A look at the eighteen contenders tells the observer that democracy
has indeed made it possible for all to participate. The constitution
had allowed for Afghan citizens to run for president. The rules restricted
candidacy by military commanders and common sense dictated that the
candidates must be those whose hands are not smeared with innocent
blood. Some observers already have questions on this issue. The election
commission has received many objections to the candidacy of some of
the contenders. Nevertheless, there now seems to be 54 names on the
ballot, one for the president and two for the vice presidents for
each candidate. A drawing of lots placed the name of a candidate Pedram,
a less known contender, on top followed by the favorite Karzai as
number two while the name of Dostum a powerful warlord from the north,
will appear among the last on the list. It is interesting to note
that everyone played interesting politics that led to the final list
of candidates. Karzai, in a daring gesture, dropped Marshal Fahim,
his present vice-president and minister of defense to take up Zia
Masoud as his running mate for the post of vice-president. Zia Masoud
is the brother of the late Ahmad Shah Masoud and the son-in-law of
Mr. Rabbani, head of the Jamiat Party and former president. The move
is expected to bring Karzai closer to Tajik constituency and to pick
up the backing of Rabbani who has already announced his support. But
things may not be as peachy as they seem. Among the Tajik group the
famous trio, namely Fahim-Qanooni-Abdullah have joined forces so that
Qanooni may win the elections. Under the liquid political situations
in Afghanistan where everything is possible, shifting of positions
may happen until the last moment. But students of Afghan politics
would look with interest into the future to find out how events, possibilities
and power politics play out in the election game for presidency. It
is reported that chances of winning for Karzai are greater, but not
absolute. There is also the possibility of a run-off contest if he
does not get better of 50 percent of votes. Political analysts also
see the possibility of a return to Karzai's camp by the trio when
and if they suspect losing the elections. A strong cabinet position
may be found better than nothing for all members of the trio, who
by now have gotten accustomed to power.
On the other hand, election campaign in Afghanistan cannot be
comparable in any way to election campaigns anywhere. Take Dr. Massouda
Jalal, the only woman contender for the presidency in the current
race. She runs on the assumption that since more than forty percent
of the registered voters are women, she may have a better chance in
getting the job. But she has no money, no organization and no campaign
strategy to take her message to her constituency and mostly to women.
It is on the other hand strongly speculated that many women would
vote for the choice of their husbands or dominant male member of their
family. Some insist this is a cultural phenomenon.
Mr. Yonus Qanooni a weathered politician who served as the main
political strategist under Ahmad Shah Masoud and gave up the strong
portfolio of the interior ministry to silence opponents of the northern
alliance and instead worked as minister of education in Karzai's cabinet,
may be in a strong position to win especially because of the support
Fahim, a warlord (who, in spite of his government position has resisted
disarming of his huge militia reportedly numbering some 50,000 men)
has vowed to give him. His camp does not complain of limitation of
funds either. But other contenders such as Mr. Mohaqiq from the Hazara
minority, together with Dostum who counts upon the support of the
Afghan Uzbek and Turkmen voters may dilute the anti-Karzai move and
thus might give him a boost.
It is under these circumstances that Afghans will go to the polling
stations on October 9, 2004 nearly a month in advance of the US elections.
There are of course commentators who suggest that Afghan elections
in October were staged mostly by American design so that it might
be used as an example of the success of President Bush's policy in
Afghanistan and Iraq. The same circles say why was there a need for
separating parliamentary elections from the presidential one while
voter registration and other elections preparations have already been
made. Does Afghanistan need a hurriedly elected president or a representative
parliament to check and direct its executive branch?
But then there is also the question of deteriorating security
in the country. Doctors Without Borders left the country protesting
insecurity and the fact that nobody was doing anything about it. The
Afghan government, the United Nations and even the United States lamented
the fact, but did nothing to correct the situation. Most recently
a German Group announced backing out from two Afghan provinces of
Paktya and Paktika in the south due to the assassination of its two
Afghan employees. There is news of Taleban resurgence and intimidation
by it and extremists of those who register to vote. Although the United
Nations and the US led allied forces might have to actively work for
maintaining of security, voting under threat and pressures might not
be supportive of the success of an election that is watched carefully
by all.
Some Afghans question what would a new elected government led
by a president do that could not be done under Karzai. Were not Karzai,
Qanooni and some other contenders in government? What are the achievements
so far of the transitional government that have made a difference
to the man on the street? What is urgent, fighting warlordism, poverty
and disease or electing and perhaps reelecting an incumbent whose
government was passively counting the days up to the elections? Could
the fact that Afghanistan would have a president make her thoroughly
independent of regional and international interests? Could a new president
play magic whereby all Arab terrorists and the Taleban are captured,
punished or rehabilitated and all foreign troops are sent to their
homes and a prosperous, free and independent Afghanistan remains to
march ahead towards true reconstruction, rehabilitation and social
and individual justice? 8/12/04
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