Karzai Planner or Player
Dr. G. Rauf Roashan
There is no denying the fact that Karzai has been selected and elected
by not one, but three so called democratic bodies namely, the Bonn meeting
and the two Loya Jirgas to lead, first an interim administration and
later a transitional government in Afghanistan. There is also no denying
the fact that there are some who challenge the legality of the abovementioned
gatherings. What is evident, however, is the fact that Hamid Karzai
has won, one way or another, the confidence of the Loya Jirgas, historical
events in contemporary Afghanistan, and is the elected leader in the
present government structure there. There are people who call him a
puppet. There are others that call him the savior and yet a few who
even believe in him. But the bare facts are that notwithstanding the
trust the nation and the world, especially the West, has placed in him,
he has not shown enough initiative, planning or strong leadership and
has not put on the table, time-bound programs for launching of the process
of reconstruction, nation building and revival of the economy in an
earnest manner. Events and tasks that were or are planned such as the
Loya Jirgas, the writing and compilation of the constitution and voter
registration and elections preparations are those entrusted to the UN
system and not the Afghan government.
According to most recent reports coming out of Kabul he has made a
deal with elements of the Northern Alliance in advance of the planned
presidential elections in September this year. According to the reports
he has agreed to let Mohammad Qasim Faheem, the former aid to Ahmad
Shah Masoud of the Northern Alliance and presently the vice president
and minister of defense, run on his ticket as the vice president in
the elections. He has also agreed to offer other powerful warlords such
as Ismail Khan and a few others, cabinet posts. In return, they have
reportedly agreed not to put any candidates against him in the upcoming
elections. So, if the reports are true, he is a dealer.
Karzai has played the cards dealt him by the fateful Bonn meeting rather
cautiously and in consultation with the US. The US ambassador to Kabul,
Dr. Khalilzad is a constant visitor to Karzai's office. Karzai has practically
surrounded himself by the walls of the Presidential Palace and on his
rare outings from the Palace is guarded by American bodyguards. He has
been invited to visit the United States next month and participate in
the meetings of the G-8 in Georgia. Afghanistan is not a member of the
G-8, but the G-8 is interested in the affairs of Afghanistan. Some believe
the big brother nations have called him in to brief him on their goals.
If so, Karzai is a player and the big brother nations are the planners.
But Karzai is a person that is sought after by many. The nation needs
him, because under the conditions, he is the unchallenged leader that
commands respect by the international community and can muster national
support if he can prove that he is a leader with a plan. President George
Bush needs him to tell the world that his vision has produced a national
leader to lead a democratic system in Afghanistan and that his investment
in money and military in Afghanistan has not been in vain. Tony Blair
needs him to tell the Commons that his government has supported the
right man for the right job to introduce Western style democracy in
the Islamic country of Afghanistan. Thus Karzai is a rare commodity.
Back home in Afghanistan, Karzai has only a few favored ministers that
enjoy power. These include the ministers of finance and interior. Other
powerful vice presidents and ministers include the minister of defense,
the minister of education and the minister of foreign affairs. There
has been no report of unanimity in purpose or even any fruitful conference
or consultation, besides the formality of cabinet meetings, between
or among these powerful figures. Some contribute this to the weakness
of the central government, but others refer to it as lack of coordination
and cooperation. Within the cabinet a true sense of coordination has
not been established. The many commissions set by Karzai for many tasks
have made no progress. This situation leads observers to believe that
Karzai, like some other leaders, resorts to referring sensitive issues
to commissions knowing well that their findings would be inconclusive.
These are used to set the minds of the people at ease during the acute
phase of the events and hoping that the passage of time would erase
the severity of the issues from the minds of the public.
Karzai has so far not planned for finding a mechanism of coordinating
with the US and other coalition and UN forces in his country. That is
why international forces are conducting arrests and interrogations of
people they detain without consultation with the government. Karzai
has made many appeals to the international community in all corners
of the world for financial help, but has failed to account for or present
a feasible plan for spending of the aid it has already received or expects
to receive. Both he and his minister of finance have made many, and
times beautiful, speeches regarding the country's need for funds. They
have even put figures to their requests, but have not specified in detail
plans for the expenditure of the above. This situation has led the aid
giving agencies to channel some of the aid they have set aside for Afghanistan
through the NGOs. It was only recently that Karzai's newly appointed
minister of planning addressed in a realistic manner the issue of NGOs
and their handling of the aid money meant for Afghanistan. On the other
hand, cabinet reforms are still to be completed and duplication of tasks
within the government system must be removed and the idea of the need
for teamwork within the cabinet should not remain as an unachievable
aspiration.
But Karzai is facing a variety of challenges beyond the issue of financial
needs. He is also to deal with elements that oppose his US supported
administration, like the remnants of the Taleban and extremist movements.
Reports state that there are efforts on his part to try and befriend
some elements of these movements that would support his administration.
This is politically a risky undertaking. Perhaps Mr. Karzai would take
up this issue in his forthcoming meetings in the US with President Bush,
his defense Secretary Mr. Rumsfeld and his Secretary of State Mr. Colin
Powel in early June.
The West in general is cautiously watching the unfolding of events
in Afghanistan. Towards that end, a mission of the Commons select committee
on foreign affairs, after a recent visit to Afghanistan came back with
what the Independent of London called "a grim report." Perhaps
that is also the reason why as per Mr. Tony Blair, the Prime Minister
of Britain, Afghanistan would be a "major issue" at the NATO
summit which he will attend in Turkey next month.
All of the above are indicative of the fact that while the West has
put its hopes in the person of Mr. Karzai, the "Big Brother"
countries are watching.
Under these circumstances it is easy to think that the West would like
to see him play preconceived plans and thus be a player. However, Karzai
has learned how to become a shrewd politician. Perhaps he also knows
that no politician can ride for long on the support of other nations,
military or financial, and therefore all nations need to find ways and
means to stand on their own feet. This requires planning, practical
down to earth and realistic planning, driving the nation towards a prosperous
future. He only has to have a team and to direct his team to go ahead
and make that plan. Only then he will also be called a planner. 5/29/04