Afghan Politics and the "Rohrabacher Effect"

By:     Dr. G. Rauf Roashan 

Abstract: Sometimes even an influential foreign well-wisher's comments and advice could have repercussions on a country's political situation. This paper focuses on an example of the same and calls it "Rohrabacher Effect". Rohrabacher is a famous republican house representative from California.

One of the United States politicians with a keen interest in the affairs of Afghanistan is a California republican House Representative Dana Rohrabacher. He has almost consistently been critical of the policies of the US administration regarding Afghanistan. Over many years he has acquired some knowledge about the country through contacts with Afghans and personal field visits. He has met with Afghan politicians, factional leaders, mainstream and controversial figures, as well as the common man in Afghanistan. All of these distinguish him from majority of the US citizens and even the US politicians.

However, one of the dangers of such involvement with the issues of a distant land by a notable politician in the West is a situation of "knowing it all" feeling. However, knowing it all about Afghanistan, for a non-Afghan may not be possible.

One of the most important issues facing Afghanistan today is promulgation of a new constitution for the country. A draft has already been prepared and presented to the head of the transitional government. It would be many months before another committee still to be appointed by the Afghan president could give the draft a final shape. One of the issues the constitution has to face up with is distribution of power over Afghanistan's geopolitical and administrative divisions.

Last Friday, Mr. Rohrabacher paid a visit to Mazar-e-Sharif and met with controversial politicians-cum-warlords Dostum, head of the Junbish-e-Milie faction and his rival Atta Mohammad of Jamiat-e-Islami faction. The very fact that many foreign dignitaries visit Mazar-e-Sharif as if it were an independent unit in itself may or may not be a questionable act resulting in overlooking of the authority of the central government in Afghanistan, but a meeting by a prominent US politician with controversial Afghan local leaders is. At the end of the meeting Mr. Rohrabacher was reported criticizing U.S. policy of supporting a central government in Afghanistan. He even went ahead to call this policy a product of "too many Ivy League thinkers."

Talking after his visit he described the need for people to be provided with the ability to elect their local leaders. He further said you couldn't expect everybody to take his or her orders from Kabul. He opposed a centralized system for Afghanistan giving example of the failure of the centralized system in the former Soviet Union and the prospering of the federal system in the United States.

What Mr. Rohrabacher has not considered in his statement is the fact that Afghanistan is neither comparable with the former Soviet Union, nor with the United States. Such comparisons would not work because of the wide geographical, social and political differences. A centralized system of government worked in Afghanistan during the 19th and 20th centuries until foreign intervention destroyed the basis of civil life in the country. On the other hand, a centrally strong government in Afghanistan does not mean blocking democratic processes in favor of local election of executives for provincial administrations. The Afghan Ivy Leaguers, who would not be influenced by Rohrabacher effect, would see a system of government for Afghanistan that does meet the requirement of local autonomy compatible with a central government that is democratic and representative of all geographic, ethnic and linguistic entities, based on the principles of true equality and justice. The two ideals are not mutually exclusive.
It is because of the Rohrabacher effect that the Afghan warlords thrive. They see in themselves the qualities that have endeared them to some important US politicians. They find in this strength to continue their hold on power and keep their factions thriving. Any promise for abandoning of military strength by them would be a promise only. While Rohrabacher claimed support for his ideas by Dostum, Atta Mohammad denied agreeing with Rohrabacher on a federal system for Afghanistan.

For the Rohrabacher effect on Afghan politics you do not need to be Rohrabacher. Many other dignitaries and ranking officials of the Western world could exert the Rohrabacher effect. As an example let us have a look at the military aspects of this political phenomenon. A report from Kabul stated that Afghan military leaders agreed on the need for a national army last Sunday. The agreement was reached at the first national military meeting since the fall of the Taleban. Regional commanders, government leaders and commanders of U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan attended the meeting. The US local commander Lieutenant-General Dan McNeill who attended the meeting has been criticized for making the task of disarming of the factional fighters difficult. He has been employing regional militias in the US war on terrorism. This empowers the militia and their leaders, factional leaders or warlords, further making the central government weaker and ineffective. The transitional government has been entrusted with the task of building of national army of 70,000 troops. It has only been able to train 3000. On the other hand it has proclaimed its objective of disarming of the factional fighters estimated to number 100,000 at this time. Notwithstanding even foreign financial aid, no effective progress has been achieved in this regard so far. One of the reasons for this failure could be the "Rohrabacher Effect" that has, perhaps inadvertently, continued to support continuation of factional politics. This is yet another example of what could be called the foreign dignitaries and personalities' effect on Afghan politics.

One thing for sure in all of this is recognition of the right of the Afghan nation to be empowered to take a decisive role in the determination of their fate without foreign intervention. It would be essential for the evolving Afghan constitution not only to recognize this fact, but also to provide for a mechanism so that the people would be able to exercise their rights. The constitution must provide for equality and justice. It should provide for unity of the Afghan nation while preserving cultural identities of different tribes living inside the country's geopolitical limits. Rohrabacher Effect should be eliminated and Afghan well-wishers from outside should better advise their own governments rather than providing support to individuals and factions inside Afghanistan. 04/20/03