Marc Lanteigne

Conference

November 22^nd-23^rd, 2001

Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Ottawa, Canada

Organized by South Asia Partnership Canada

(Summary Report of the Afghanistan of Tomorrow conference, held in Ottawa, Canada, November 23-24, 2001)

The conference on Afghanistan of Tomorrow took place at a watershed moment in that country’s current history, as American-led bombings and the ground forces of the Northern Alliance had driven the ruling Taliban regime out of most of the northern part of the country, and the capital city of Kabul. However, victory by forces allied against the Taliban was still far from certain, as the northern city of Konduz was still being contested and much of the south, including the birthplace of the Taliban movement, Kandahar, was also being fought for. The whereabouts of Osama bin Laden, leader of the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization accused of orchestrating the horrible terrorist acts in the United States on September 11^th, was still unknown.

Despite the uncertainty of Afghanistan’s future, scholars, activists, leaders, and professionals from the Afghan communities in Canada, as well as the United States, Europe, and South Asia, came to this conference to ask a crucial question for the country: "what comes next?" What needs to be done in order to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan, and to ensure that the horrors of the last two decades must not happen again? The primary goals of the conference were to promote a greater understanding of the current Afghan conflict and the history which led to the wars, to examine the possible shape of a post-Taliban government in Afghanistan, and to engage Canadian governmental and non-governmental agencies, as well as academics and professionals, in the reconstruction process.

The event was opened by Mr. Richard Harmston, the Executive Director of South Asia Partnership Canada, Dr. Omar Zakhilwal of the Institute for Afghan Studies, and Dr. Rey Pagtakhan, Canada’s Secretary of State for the Asia Pacific. Their opening remarks focussed on questions over what the next government of Afghanistan will do for a people devastated by decades of war, and how the international community, including Canada, can assist in the rebuilding process. This was followed by a panel on the historical events which have led up to Afghanistan’s current state of crisis, from the overthrow of the monarchy in 1973 to the Soviet invasion six years later and the brutal Karmal and Najibullah regimes, to the mujahideen and failed attempts after the Soviet military pullout to construct a stable coalition government in the 1990s, creating a political vacuum which was filled by the Taliban after 1996. Adding to the country’s domestic woes was the fact that Afghanistan’s internal political weaknesses also made it a target for political intervention from outside governments, including Moscow but also those in Pakistan, Iran, and the United States.

One of the highlights of the event was a conference call from Prince Mostapha Zahir, grandson of Afghan King Mohammad Zahir Shah and former graduate from Queen’s University in Kingston. Addressing the assembly via telephone from Rome, Italy, Prince Mostapha expressed his hopes that the royal family could play a positive role in the next Afghan government, and called upon the international community to encourage the development of pluralism, good government, and the holding of free elections. A provisional government, backed by the United Nations and representative of the Afghan people, would be charged with political, economic, and social reconstruction, as well as creating a new constitution and upholding human rights for all citizens. The provisional government, he added, should only hold power for eighteen months to two years before being succeeded by a new administration chosen by the people. He expressed his hopes that United Nations-sponsored talks to be held just outside of Bonn, Germany in late November would produce the platform necessary for these reforms to take place. Representatives of four different Afghan groups prepared to attend the meetings in Germany, including the Northern Alliance led by Burhanuddin Rabbani, the country’s deposed president, (the Alliance was to be represented by Alliance Interior Minister Yonus Qanooni), the "Rome Group" comprised of the royal family and its supporters, the "Peshawar Group" which would represent the large Afghan refugee population based in Pakistan as well as interests of the Afghan Pashtun population, and the "Cyprus Group" of Afghan expatriates. The UN delegation would be led by Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi of Algeria, the United Nations Special Representative for Afghanistan.

The reconstruction of Afghanistan, as many of the conference panelists explained, will by necessity be multifaceted in response to the large number of different crises in the country which need to be addressed before peace can truly take hold:

Responsible government: Many panelists and attendees expressed their concern that with the Northern Alliance (also known as the United Front and composed of combatants drawn from Uzbek, Tajik, and Hazara ethnic groups) currently occupying Kabul, the country may revert to the situation of 1992, marked by chaos right after the Najibullah regime collapsed and squabbling allies violently turned on each other. Many agreed that a successor government comprised only of Northern Alliance members could not govern effectively, and may lead the country back into civil war. Instead, it was advocated that the next government in Kabul needs to be more representative of the whole of the country, including the Pashtun populations of the south. In order for this goal to be realized, it was recommended that the deposed Afghan monarch, currently living in Rome, return to the country and participate in an interim government, and that a traditional Loya Jurga (Grand Assembly) be convened in order to bring together all of the parties seeking to establish a stable successor government. In short, Afghanistan needs to rebuild its political institutions and civil society to give the whole of the people a greater say in government, and it was recommended that a new constitution by established to rebuild the rule of law in the country. There was also discussion of different ways of redistributing power in Afghanistan to ensure better representation, but it was added that a federal system based along ethnic lines may lead to secession crises, and that as an alternative the actors involved should be local and provincial governments.

Human rights: It was generally agreed that no new government or constitution could be put into place without human rights being respected and protected. The Taliban regime was especially harsh on women, curtailing even their most basic human rights and removing them from practically all aspects of social, political, and economic life in the country. Laws guaranteeing equal rights were scrapped and now need to be restored. As one scholar noted, the plight of Afghan women was one of the most powerful symbols of Afghanistan’s tragedy under the Taliban, and with that regime removed, the importance of all Afghan citizens to re-assert their rights as a new government is being constructed was discussed. The right to health care will be another difficult issue, since many facilities fell into disuse and those which still operate are hampered by large numbers of patients and a shortage of professionals, equipment and medicine. The personnel problems were exacerbated by the fact that a large number of health care workers and professionals in the country are women, many of whom were forced to give up practicing under the Taliban’s edicts.

Economic Reconstruction: The Afghan economy has been all but decimated after the long decades of conflict, with much of the country’s infrastructure in ruins. Poverty and widespread unemployment will continue to scar the country. Sectors in desperate need of revival include transportation, roads, basic needs and services, trade, banking, communications, and agriculture. To complicate matters further, the cultivation of opium poppies, which was allowed to flourish under the Taliban regime, overwhelmed the Afghan economy and now needs to be dismantled and alternative crops promoted. Although the short-term Afghan economic picture will be dominated by humanitarian assistance and financial aid, hopes were expressed that in the future the agriculture, energy and consumer goods can play a larger role. Trade ties with neighbouring countries also need to be re-developed, it was added, and commercial agreements needed to be put in place to discourage transnational crime and smuggling. For reconstruction to work, however, the international community must stay engaged and encourage joint ventures and initiatives. As well, expatriate Afghans were encouraged to use their various areas of expertise to play a stronger role in the rebuilding processes.

Disarmament: Curtailing the power of militias and warlords in the country would be a difficult task, especially since, as some participants mentioned, some military leaders may wish to continue fighting. In addition, the demobilizing of large numbers of soldiers in Afghanistan will be economically and socially challenging as well. Nevertheless, the disarming of militias was seen as key, and there were calls for a civilian police force to be established, perhaps with the assistance of foreign experts and educators. The establishment of a United Nations peacekeeping force in demilitarized areas, likely drawn from countries who have not a direct stake in Afghan politics, was also recommended. However, in was added that the disarmament issue goes well beyond the problem of arms possession and smuggling, for there is also a large number of land mines, estimated to be about ten million, left over from the war against the Soviets and subsequent conflicts, which still cause great injury both to combatants and civilians, and will continue to prevent large amounts of land from being reclaimed unless a concentrated effort is made to both remove them and prevent more from being used.

Youth: A panel on youth described the issues important to young people in the country and the roles that youth may play in postwar Afghanistan. Many of Afghanistan’s youth have been harmed both physically and emotionally by the war. In addition to doctors and pediatricians, counselors and mental health experts will be needed to heal the nation’s children. As well, the educational system will also need to be rebuilt, in many cases from the ground up, as many young men and even more young women were denied basic education under the Taliban. Many facilities, such as libraries and classrooms, were either destroyed or had fallen into disrepair, and supplies of all sorts will be needed. Programs such as scholarships, exchanges, joint projects, and youth organizations could also be tools to assist in the rebuilding process. In addition to education for children, the development of vocational, technical and trade schools to encourage adult education and employment was also recommended.

Foreign relations: Participants expressed hope that the era of foreign manipulation of Afghan affairs would soon end with a lasting peace and a stable central government. There were calls for the immediate removal of all foreign militias from the country as part of the peace process. These groups were seen as instrumental in assisting the Taliban in maintaining its grip on power, and were also used to support terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda. Concerns remain that some of Afghanistan’s neighbours may still be supporting some internal political actors over others. As an alternative, the international community was called upon to play a more positive role in encouraging Afghan peace and stability. The convening of an international conference on Afghanistan and its future was strongly recommended, and Canada was encouraged to call for such a gathering.

In later comments, it was noted that it would be misleading for the international community to refer to the Afghanistan rebuilding process as "nation-building", since the state of Afghanistan has existed for many decades, and the Afghan people for centuries longer. Although the scope of Afghanistan’s reconstruction is large and may appear daunting, much confidence was expressed at the conference that the development of reconstruction plans and the building of stronger networks would be able to assist in the peacebuilding process in Afghanistan. Although much of the reconstruction will need to be undertaken by the Afghan people themselves, it was agreed that the process will not work without a strong and lasting commitment from the global community. There is no doubt that the rebuilding will be slow and oftentimes difficult and expensive, but as one scholar noted, "Afghanistan is not a place for quick fixes."

The Conference on "Afghanistan of Tomorrow" was organized by South Asia Partnership Canada, in collaboration with the Institute for Afghan Studies, San Francisco, the Centre for Peace Studies, McMaster University, and the Afghanistan Working Group. The event was also supported by the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, the International Development Research Centre, and the Canadian Peacebuilding Coordinating Committee.

Marc Lanteigne is a Doctoral Candidate at McGill University in Montreal, Canada, specializing in Chinese and Central Asian politics and foreign policy. A copy of this summary will also be appearing in the February 2002 edition of the Canadian Consortium on Asia Pacific Security Bulletin.